Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210724 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.10    150.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    132.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        44.4  51.2  46.6  43.0  39.6  29.7  29.7  29.7 VU VU VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    9.0   7.0   5.0   4.0   1.0   2.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.1 117.9 115.7 113.6  98.0  87.7  87.7  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   104.0  61.0  65.0  82.0  90.0  17.0  17.0  17.0  F  N  N  N  F  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  61.0  63.0  60.0  55.0  61.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   8.0  60.0  55.0  44.0  22.0 -35.0 -35.0 -35.0  U VU VU VU VU VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%