Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210725 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.80    150.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      6.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    144.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        42.5  43.9  41.2  29.9  29.6  17.9  20.5  20.2 VU VU VU  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   2.0   5.0  16.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  47.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]         98.0 101.6 103.5 101.6  99.8  70.4  54.7 113.6  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    76.0  59.0  36.0  52.0  14.0  30.0  27.0   9.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   63.0  59.0  57.0  52.0  47.0  48.0  48.0  49.0  N  U  U  U VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] 104.0  65.0  13.0  24.0 -26.0 -52.0  -7.0  -2.0 VU VU  U VU VF VF  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons