Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210726 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.40    142.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        11.9  10.4  10.6   8.3   7.7  13.9  22.8  39.1  F  F  F VF VF  F  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   28.0  27.0  30.0   0.0   0.0  48.0  59.0  61.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         94.8  94.8  84.3  61.7  68.0 110.7 119.6 122.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     7.0  36.0   5.0  19.0  -3.0   7.0  -4.0  -5.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  47.0  50.0  48.0  53.0  55.0  57.0 VU VU VU  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -4.0  -1.0   3.0   0.0   6.0   2.0   1.0   7.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.9%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        0.5%        2.5%        1.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.3%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h       13.8%       13.8%       13.8%
 70kt / 48h       13.8%        1.8%        7.8%
 65kt / 72h        6.0%        3.0%        4.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons