Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210727 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.90    142.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.4   9.4   8.9  10.8  17.2  24.4  37.6  41.5  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    3.0  23.0   0.0   0.0  44.0  58.0  61.0   3.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         94.8  79.6  53.8  53.8 108.6 117.3 122.0 124.3  N  N  U  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   6.0  -9.0   6.0  -8.0   6.0 -10.0 -23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  44.0  43.0  41.0  43.0  46.0  45.0  49.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  11.0   5.0  17.0  -5.0  -4.0   0.0  11.0  N  U  N  U  F  F  N  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.2%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        3.8%        2.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.5%        1.1%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        8.9%        8.9%        8.9%
 70kt / 48h        8.9%        1.2%        5.1%
 65kt / 72h        2.8%        1.4%        2.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons