Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210727 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.80    142.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.8   8.9   9.5  11.8  19.7  28.6  39.1  43.4  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  36.0  48.0  57.0  58.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         65.8  46.7  33.4  55.5  89.8 105.7 112.3 114.6  U  U VU  U  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]     6.0  -9.0   6.0   0.0  -3.0 -41.0 -20.0 -18.0  U  U  U  U  U VU VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  45.0  43.0  43.0  45.0  47.0  49.0  50.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0   5.0  15.0   5.0  -3.0  -4.0  12.0   7.0  U  N  U  N  N  F  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.4%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.4%        0.9%        0.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.9%        0.7%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons