Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210727 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.80    142.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         8.2   8.2  12.6  19.7  26.3  38.9  39.7  31.4 VF VF  F  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0  28.0  41.0  45.0  51.0  53.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         47.4  50.0  73.0  87.7 103.5 109.4 111.5 111.5  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -6.0  25.0 -13.0   7.0 -46.0  13.0 -22.0 -21.0  U  U  U  U VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   45.0  44.0  42.0  45.0  44.0  47.0  50.0  55.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -5.0  -2.0   5.0   2.0   0.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        0.3%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons