Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210728 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     39.10    141.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      1.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    117.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]         4.9  12.9  17.0  17.2  37.0  48.0  43.0  27.3 VF  F  F  F  U VU VU  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0  28.0  39.0  43.0  50.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]         48.4  70.5  83.6  96.0 106.6 112.4 116.5 114.4  U  U  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0 -26.0 -21.0   7.0 -30.0  -4.0  16.0  -1.0  U VU VU  U VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   46.0  44.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  49.0  51.0  56.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0  -3.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.5%        0.5%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.5%        0.1%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.3%        0.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons