Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210728 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.20    140.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    115.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        13.0  15.1  17.2  26.9  40.1  48.4  34.3  29.8  F  F  F  N  U VU  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0  25.0  31.0  35.0  37.0  46.0  50.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Potential [kt]         76.7  85.0  91.1  96.0 101.2 104.8 108.5 112.4  U  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0 -21.0   7.0 -27.0 -10.0  16.0  11.0 -14.0 VU VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   43.0  47.0  46.0  45.0  48.0  50.0  52.0  58.0 VU VU VU VU  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   4.0   2.0   2.0  -1.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons