Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210728 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.90    138.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.9  20.0  27.8  36.1  41.4  38.6  22.7  27.5  F  N  N  U VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   23.0  31.0  34.0  37.0  44.0  46.0  47.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]         93.0 101.0 104.4 108.0 111.6 113.5 113.5  91.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -13.0  -6.0 -20.0  -3.0 -12.0  17.0  15.0  35.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   49.0  48.0  46.0  48.0  54.0  55.0  60.0  62.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   3.0   1.0   3.0  26.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        0.4%        0.4%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons