Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210728 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.80    137.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.0  27.7  36.1  39.6  42.1  34.1  19.6  25.8  N  N  U  U VU  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  38.0  38.0  44.0  44.0  45.0  46.0   0.0  U  U  U  N  N  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        106.2 111.6 111.6 111.6 111.6 113.5 111.6  87.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -5.0 -20.0  -3.0 -14.0  10.0  24.0  14.0  29.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   48.0  46.0  48.0  52.0  53.0  56.0  58.0  60.0  U VU  U  U  U  U  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0   1.0   0.0   7.0   2.0   1.0   1.0  44.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.6%        0.5%        0.5%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons