Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP112021 210729 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     40.70    136.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     7.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      0.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      1.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.0  39.4  42.4  43.2  34.9  21.9  26.3  22.4  N  U VU VU  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   37.0  38.0  44.0  45.0  45.0  46.0  38.0   0.0  U  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        116.6 116.6 118.5 118.5 120.5 120.5 107.7  95.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -47.0  -8.0 -18.0 -20.0  23.0  41.0  31.0  37.0 VU  U  U VU  U  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   53.0  51.0  54.0  54.0  55.0  56.0  58.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   3.0   0.0   1.0   1.0  12.0  24.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        1.1%        0.6%        0.8%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons