Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122021 210802 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    153.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     6.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     24.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.9  19.9  25.3  25.9  25.5  18.4  22.8  16.3  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0   4.0   4.0   5.0   2.0  14.0   5.0   4.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        122.9 110.5 106.6 104.8 104.8 112.4 101.2  97.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  40.0  70.0  68.0  23.0  -2.0  27.0  13.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  69.0  65.0  64.0  63.0  63.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0 -12.0  -7.0 -11.0  12.0  11.0  20.0  19.0  N  F  F  F  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.2%        1.7%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        6.3%        3.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.4%        1.5%        0.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.2%        1.4%        0.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%       10.0%        5.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        1.7%        1.7%        1.7%
 70kt / 48h        1.7%        2.7%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.4%        3.3%        1.8%