Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122021 210802 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.40    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     32.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     98.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.5  26.6  28.7  22.7  21.9  21.7  20.7  18.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   13.0  10.0  12.0   5.0  13.0   7.0   9.0   7.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 110.5 114.4 114.4 116.5 112.4 110.5 103.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    41.0  70.0  68.0  21.0  -4.0  30.0  44.0  24.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  64.0  64.0  63.0  64.0  67.0  66.0  66.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -7.0  -2.0 -13.0   1.0  13.0 -10.0   1.0   7.0  F  N VF  N  U  F  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        4.8%        2.7%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        9.0%        4.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        2.7%        1.5%
 55kt / 48h        1.1%        1.1%        1.1%
 70kt / 48h        1.1%        2.7%        1.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.8%        4.7%        2.7%