Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122021 210803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.60    152.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     4.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      4.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    109.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.6  25.1  25.4  24.5  22.0  23.0  16.1  21.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0  10.0   8.0   8.0   6.0   4.0  13.0   5.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.4 114.4 116.5 116.5 114.4 112.4 106.6 101.2  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    81.0  30.0  22.0  13.0  -8.0  50.0  24.0  35.0  N  N  U  U  U  N  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   64.0  64.0  65.0  61.0  61.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -18.0 -11.0  13.0  16.0  11.0   3.0   3.0  31.0 VF  F  U  U  U  N  N VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.7%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        1.8%        1.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons