Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP122021 210803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.00    149.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    20.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    20.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    10.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      4.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    112.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        23.7  21.0  22.8  18.7  19.0  13.6  19.6  29.5  N  N  N  N  N  F  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0   5.0  10.0   6.0   9.0  12.0   8.0  19.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        120.5 122.4 128.6 128.6 124.4 116.6 114.8 130.7  N  N  F  F  N  N  N  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0  16.0  18.0  -4.0   9.0   6.0  43.0  46.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  58.0  60.0  58.0  62.0  61.0  61.0  56.0  N  U  N  U  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0   8.0  12.0   8.0   6.0   0.0   5.0   4.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        2.2%        1.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%        2.2%        2.2%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons