Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210803 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.30    113.40
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.0  26.7  28.3  31.5  30.2  27.4  17.9  21.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  F  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   30.0  27.0  26.0  25.0  28.0  27.0  25.0  16.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0 140.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  43.0  33.0  39.0  56.0  36.0  15.0 -20.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  68.0  71.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  77.0  75.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0  -8.0  -8.0 -12.0  -4.0   9.0  -5.0   1.0  N  F  F  F  F  U  F  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.3%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        1.8%       10.6%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.8%        1.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.8%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.5%        1.3%
 45kt / 36h        0.7%       13.5%        7.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        3.6%        1.9%
 55kt / 48h        1.4%        5.0%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        4.2%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        2.2%       14.1%        8.2%