Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210803 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.50    113.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.4  28.6  29.3  29.1  29.1  27.7  23.8  29.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   38.0  38.0  39.0  44.0  46.0  35.0   9.0   5.0  U  U  U  N  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 134.3 110.5 103.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    58.0  18.0  30.0  67.0  42.0  32.0  29.0  14.0  N  U  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  70.0  74.0  75.0  75.0  77.0  73.0  70.0  N  N  N  F  F  F  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -1.0   3.0  -1.0   4.0  14.0  12.0  15.0  16.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.2%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.5%       10.7%        6.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.8%        2.9%        1.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        2.9%        1.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.8%        1.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       14.3%        8.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.0%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        5.9%        4.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.7%        3.4%        2.0%
 65kt / 72h        1.4%        4.8%        3.1%