Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210803 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.10    114.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     36.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     21.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        29.3  33.8  36.7  34.3  33.9  22.8  28.7  23.2  N  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  24.0  24.0  25.0  28.0  21.0  17.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 120.7 106.6  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    34.0  24.0  48.0  68.0  45.0  44.0 -31.0   1.0  N  U  N  N  N  N VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  68.0  73.0  73.0  78.0  77.0  76.0  76.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0   1.0   4.0  14.0  15.0  11.0  16.0   9.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.1%        7.4%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.5%        1.9%        1.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.9%
 45kt / 36h        0.3%        8.2%        4.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.4%        3.6%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.3%        3.1%        1.7%