Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210803 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.00    114.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     56.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     43.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        33.9  35.9  33.7  31.0  25.9  27.0  28.1  32.9  U  U  U  U  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  47.0  47.0  45.0  31.0  11.0   0.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 130.0 120.1 103.5  92.7  86.1  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    24.0  48.0  69.0  36.0  44.0  19.0  25.0  11.0  U  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  69.0  72.0  75.0  76.0  68.0  69.0  67.0  N  N  N  F  F  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   4.0  14.0  17.0  21.0  25.0  15.0  21.0  N  N  U  U VU VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.6%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        4.0%       12.4%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.4%        4.0%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.0%        2.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        3.1%        1.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.8%       13.8%        7.8%
 55kt / 36h        0.6%        3.9%        2.2%
 55kt / 48h        1.8%        4.1%        2.9%
 70kt / 48h        0.4%        2.2%        1.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.7%        0.9%