Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210804 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     21.70    116.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     30.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    135.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        27.2  28.4  25.6  22.8  30.4  28.6  36.8  37.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  22.0  22.0   1.0   1.0   0.0  10.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        127.0 115.7 105.5  96.2  91.0 101.6  98.0  92.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  56.0  55.0  32.0 -18.0   0.0 -17.0 -19.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  79.0  78.0  74.0  70.0  63.0  59.0  61.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  U  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   5.0  20.0  19.0   7.0  14.0   6.0  17.0  -1.0  N VU VU  N  U  N  U  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        0.9%        0.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        4.2%        2.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.9%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.4%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%