Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     22.40    116.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     40.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     36.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    124.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.5  25.7  22.4  26.1  30.0  28.3  33.0  30.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   33.0  26.0  25.0  25.0  26.0  22.0  13.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        119.6 117.3 119.6 122.0 125.0 125.0 115.1  87.7  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    55.0  55.0  32.0 -32.0   5.0  -9.0 -27.0 -17.0  N  N  N VU  U  U VU  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  78.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  63.0  63.0  60.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  21.0  19.0   8.0  12.0  17.0  13.0  27.0  24.0 VU VU  U  U  U  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        1.9%        1.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.8%       12.5%        8.2%
 30kt / 24h        1.9%        4.5%        3.2%
 35kt / 24h        1.9%        4.5%        3.2%
 40kt / 24h        0.4%        4.3%        2.3%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       10.7%        6.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        3.2%        2.0%
 55kt / 48h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.6%        0.9%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        1.4%        0.7%