Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.10    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     57.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     46.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.5  20.2  20.7  27.3  25.4  39.5  34.6  30.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  18.0  16.0  16.0   9.0  13.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        107.9 107.9 110.1 112.3 117.0 112.3  99.4  97.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0  29.0 -19.0 -26.0 -28.0 -16.0   2.0  -5.0  U  N  U VU VU  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   79.0  77.0  76.0  75.0  71.0  70.0  65.0  66.0  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  11.0  15.0  20.0  32.0  16.0  39.0  11.0  26.0  U  U VU VU  U VU  U VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.5%        5.5%        5.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.4%       20.3%       13.9%
 30kt / 24h        5.3%       10.5%        7.9%
 35kt / 24h        5.3%       10.5%        7.9%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%        9.3%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        3.0%       18.9%       11.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        7.9%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        3.7%        2.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        1.5%        0.8%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.8%        0.4%