Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.40    116.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     65.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    139.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  19.5  25.0  27.3  29.8  35.5  26.7  17.8  F  N  N  N  N  U  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   18.0   2.0   5.0   5.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 101.5 101.5 101.5  99.4  86.2  68.6  64.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0 -19.0 -26.0 -15.0 -24.0 -41.0 -16.0  12.0  N  U VU  U VU VU  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   77.0  76.0  77.0  74.0  71.0  71.0  68.0  70.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  16.0  24.0  32.0  36.0  32.0  42.0  17.0  10.0  U VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.2%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        2.4%       10.0%        6.2%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        4.7%        3.5%
 35kt / 24h        2.4%        4.7%        3.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.4%        1.7%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        8.8%        4.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        3.3%        1.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.5%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%