Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     23.70    117.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     38.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     14.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  21.6  23.3  18.8  30.3  28.0  30.7  22.3  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         75.0  66.7  61.7  58.2  54.8  59.3  68.0  76.5  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0 -26.0 -15.0 -27.0 -15.0   2.0  -6.0   5.0  U VU  U VU  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   76.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  70.0  70.0  72.0  70.0  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  23.0  29.0  40.0  20.0  33.0  14.0  21.0   5.0 VU VU VU VU VU  U VU  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons