Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.00    117.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -10.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    145.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.6  21.9  25.1  24.7  32.4  33.4  26.0  24.8  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  21.0  28.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         71.7  66.7  65.5  64.3  71.7  83.0  91.0  96.2  U  U  U  U  U  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -16.0 -15.0 -26.0 -26.0  -7.0   1.0  47.0  48.0  U  U VU VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  73.0  70.0  65.0  64.0  62.0  62.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  29.0  43.0  33.0  33.0  37.0  26.0  22.0  16.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons