Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.50    118.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     34.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    158.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        21.8  24.2  23.7  29.1  29.5  35.4  29.6  25.3  N  N  N  N  N  U  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    2.0   0.0  15.0  28.0  17.0   0.0  44.0  32.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  N  U
 Potential [kt]         87.7  86.1  92.7  98.0 113.6  80.0 130.0 130.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -15.0 -26.0 -26.0 -23.0 -14.0  -3.0  21.0  71.0  U VU VU VU  U  U  U  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   73.0  68.0  65.0  65.0  62.0  64.0  66.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  46.0  39.0  37.0  49.0  32.0  38.0  17.0   8.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU  U  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.9%        0.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons