Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     24.70    120.70
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     9.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     45.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     16.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    146.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.4  17.4  20.9  18.1  32.3  50.9  59.9  52.0  F  F  N  F  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   25.0  25.0  31.0  24.0  43.0  20.0   9.0  31.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 125.0 117.3 125.0  98.5  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    43.0  45.0  47.0  39.0  45.0  38.0  29.0  50.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   68.0  66.0  66.0  68.0  54.0  53.0  50.0  53.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -5.0  -5.0 -10.0 -14.0 -13.0 -16.0 -45.0 -69.0  F  F  F VF VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.8%        3.1%        2.5%
 25kt / 24h        7.2%       21.3%       14.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%       10.3%        7.5%
 35kt / 24h        4.8%       10.3%        7.5%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%       10.2%        5.2%
 45kt / 36h        4.2%       19.8%       12.0%
 55kt / 36h        2.0%        7.6%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.7%        3.9%        2.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.2%        2.9%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        2.3%        1.2%