Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210807 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.60    122.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      9.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      9.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    153.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.3  18.3  18.9  26.3  41.5  59.1  62.2  69.5  F  F  N  N VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   58.0  51.0  47.0  46.0   5.0  40.0  50.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  U  N  N  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 101.6 130.0 130.0  70.4  F  F  F  F  N  F  F  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  47.0  39.0  83.0  47.0  53.0  47.0  19.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  66.0  67.0  63.0  54.0  56.0  57.0  58.0  N  N  N  N  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -15.0 -12.0 -14.0   2.0 -26.0 -29.0 -53.0  F VF  F VF  N VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.5%        0.9%
 25kt / 24h        2.9%       12.1%        7.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 35kt / 24h        1.3%        4.3%        2.8%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        4.3%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.8%        5.1%        2.9%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.1%        1.0%        0.6%
 70kt / 48h        0.1%        0.6%        0.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%