Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     28.40    126.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     26.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    134.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.3  33.7  39.3  41.3  60.5  62.8  71.3  78.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   44.0  47.0  22.0  22.0  46.0  63.0  29.0   0.0  N  N  U  U  N  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 130.0 124.6 124.6 130.0 130.0  87.7  50.9  F  F  N  N  F  F  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    51.0  68.0  38.0  49.0  98.0  51.0  37.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  F  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  58.0  58.0  55.0  55.0  54.0  50.0  N  N  U  U  U  U  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0  -4.0  -5.0  -6.0  -8.0  -7.0  -4.0  10.0  N  F  F  F  F  F  F  U


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.7%        1.9%        1.3%
 25kt / 24h        1.2%        7.1%        4.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        1.9%        1.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.7%        0.8%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        3.2%        1.6%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.6%        0.3%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.7%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%