Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210808 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    126.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     10.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.20             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    136.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.2  41.0  43.9  54.5  53.0  68.3  70.7  76.4  U VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  16.0   1.0   7.0   9.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0 125.0 122.0 125.0 125.0 125.0  66.7  53.8  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    86.0  44.0  62.0  95.0  61.0  76.0  39.0  35.0  F  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  57.0  56.0  53.0  53.0  52.0  48.0  45.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0  -7.0 -12.0  -4.0   3.0   9.0  20.0  21.0  F  F  F  F  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.8%        0.7%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        2.2%        1.4%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.8%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%