Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210808 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.50    130.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     11.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    128.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        26.5  36.5  44.4  45.3  52.8  54.7  69.3  76.8  N  U VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   15.0   5.0   6.0   6.0   1.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         89.4  69.4 125.0 115.1  84.3  64.2  53.8  45.0  N  U  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    49.0  52.0  50.0  41.0  61.0  35.0  28.0   7.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  63.0  59.0  58.0  55.0  45.0  36.0  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -12.0 -14.0 -23.0  -2.0  15.0   3.0 -13.0   1.0  F VF VF  N  U  N VF  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.5%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons