Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP132021 210809 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.50    136.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]   -15.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      2.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      0.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    138.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        49.7  55.4  62.5  73.4  93.3  96.1  98.4  93.0 VU VU VU VU VU VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    6.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        125.0  50.7  65.4  53.8  41.6  34.1  17.3  13.4  N  U  U  U  U VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    25.0  50.0  36.0  26.0  50.0  50.0  22.0  -1.0  U  N  N  U  N  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   60.0  62.0  58.0  51.0  39.0  31.0  30.0  36.0  N  N  U  U VU VU VU VU
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  43.0   9.0  31.0   3.0 -18.0  21.0 -13.0  -6.0 VU  U VU  N VF VU VF  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons