Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210804 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.00    128.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.0  27.4  20.6  17.8  20.2  19.3  22.6  28.1  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  36.0  36.0  32.0  28.0  29.0  27.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        134.6 134.6 137.0 134.6 137.0 140.0 139.3 127.9  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  70.0  83.0  97.0  38.0 122.0  27.0 107.0  N  N  N  F  N  F  U  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  71.0  73.0  73.0  73.0  75.0  79.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0  14.0  13.0  11.0   1.0  11.0   3.0  -7.0  N  U  U  U  N  U  N  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 25kt / 24h        3.9%       15.0%        9.4%
 30kt / 24h        1.3%        4.1%        2.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.1%        2.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.1%        2.1%
 45kt / 36h        3.4%       24.6%       14.0%
 55kt / 36h        1.8%        8.2%        5.0%
 55kt / 48h       11.5%       12.8%       12.1%
 70kt / 48h        6.9%       10.1%        8.5%
 65kt / 72h       13.4%       19.0%       16.2%