Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210804 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     25.90    126.60
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      5.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        20.1  15.5  19.0  22.0  17.8  18.3  19.7  13.7  N  F  N  N  F  F  N  F
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   43.0  44.0  45.0  46.0  48.0  47.0  43.0  41.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Potential [kt]        132.0 132.0 134.3 134.3 134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    46.0  59.0  44.0  17.0  41.0  43.0  54.0  66.0  N  N  N  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  62.0  64.0  69.0  70.0  74.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   1.0   0.0  -2.0   1.0   0.0   4.0   0.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        1.0%        1.8%        1.4%
 25kt / 24h        3.6%       14.1%        8.9%
 30kt / 24h        2.0%        4.6%        3.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.4%        4.6%        3.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.2%        4.6%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        6.0%       22.3%       14.2%
 55kt / 36h        4.1%        7.1%        5.6%
 55kt / 48h       12.9%       12.1%       12.5%
 70kt / 48h        8.1%        8.8%        8.4%
 65kt / 72h       25.3%       25.6%       25.5%