Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210805 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.50    126.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    25.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    25.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     13.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     11.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      2.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    130.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        30.2  30.8  27.1  23.6  29.3  20.6  32.5  39.8  N  U  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  34.0  30.0  27.0  22.0  23.0  17.0  30.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        140.0 140.0 137.0 134.6 139.3 140.0 139.3 130.1  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    91.0  63.0  45.0  47.0  37.0  66.0  68.0  76.0  F  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  63.0  63.0  64.0  66.0  72.0  69.0  71.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  10.0  -5.0 -15.0 -14.0  -5.0  17.0   5.0 -17.0  U  F VF VF  F  U  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.7%        5.5%        3.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        1.2%        0.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        1.1%        0.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        1.1%        0.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        8.1%        4.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.2%        1.6%        0.9%
 55kt / 48h        2.4%        4.1%        3.2%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        2.5%        1.6%
 65kt / 72h        5.2%        5.9%        5.5%