Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210805 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     26.80    127.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     27.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     22.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    143.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        28.9  27.2  21.3  22.4  23.7  23.0  33.2  50.4  N  N  N  N  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   14.0  16.0  28.0  24.0  21.0  22.0  10.0   6.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.6 132.0 134.3 134.3 135.0 135.0 129.6 104.8  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    63.0  45.0  47.0  69.0  32.0  82.0  57.0  55.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   65.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  70.0  72.0  73.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   0.0 -21.0 -18.0  -3.0   1.0  31.0 -11.0 -20.0  N VF VF  N  N VU  F VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.9%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        2.3%       10.7%        6.5%
 30kt / 24h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 35kt / 24h        1.0%        3.0%        2.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        3.0%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        2.0%       14.7%        8.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.8%        4.1%        2.4%
 55kt / 48h        4.6%        7.5%        6.0%
 70kt / 48h        1.5%        5.1%        3.3%
 65kt / 72h        2.6%        6.4%        4.5%