Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210805 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    128.80
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    131.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.8  21.2  22.4  27.3  21.1  28.8  34.9  38.1  N  N  N  N  N  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   27.0  28.0  26.0  22.0  22.0  21.0   8.0  23.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        129.3 129.3 129.3 129.3 130.0 130.0 122.3 109.4  F  F  F  F  F  F  N  N
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    45.0  47.0  69.0  36.0  67.0  68.0  79.0  28.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   62.0  64.0  64.0  65.0  72.0  72.0  72.0  67.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -20.0 -18.0  -4.0  -9.0  16.0  22.0   9.0 -13.0 VF VF  F  F  U VU  U VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.6%        2.7%        2.7%
 25kt / 24h        6.1%       17.2%       11.6%
 30kt / 24h        3.6%        6.8%        5.2%
 35kt / 24h        3.0%        6.8%        4.9%
 40kt / 24h        0.6%        6.8%        3.7%
 45kt / 36h        5.5%       20.9%       13.2%
 55kt / 36h        2.8%        6.8%        4.8%
 55kt / 48h        5.0%        8.2%        6.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.9%        5.4%        3.6%
 65kt / 72h        1.7%        5.0%        3.4%