Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.00    131.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      8.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      4.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    121.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.7  19.5  17.4  19.1  27.9  32.6  42.8  63.7  N  N  F  N  N  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   24.0  27.0  23.0  17.0   7.0  15.0   1.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 107.4  91.0  59.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    74.0  42.0  34.0  41.0  67.0 137.0  72.0  90.0  N  N  N  N  N VF  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  73.0  72.0  75.0  73.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  N  N  N  F  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -12.0 -14.0 -12.0 -22.0 -55.0 -37.0 -26.0 VF  F VF  F VF VF VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.5%        1.4%        1.0%
 25kt / 24h        2.2%       11.9%        7.1%
 30kt / 24h        1.2%        4.6%        2.9%
 35kt / 24h        0.7%        4.6%        2.7%
 40kt / 24h        0.1%        4.6%        2.4%
 45kt / 36h        2.3%        9.7%        6.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.9%        2.4%        1.6%
 55kt / 48h        3.1%        4.1%        3.6%
 70kt / 48h        1.0%        3.4%        2.2%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        1.9%        1.0%