Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     27.30    133.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    35.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    35.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     23.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     15.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    127.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.8  14.2  14.2  15.1  17.9  23.3  34.3  51.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   34.0  31.0  27.0  25.0  37.0  42.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  N  U  U
 Potential [kt]        130.0 130.0 129.3 124.6 122.3 109.4  81.5  70.4  F  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    57.0  36.0   0.0  54.0 110.0 120.0 104.0 105.0  N  N  U  N  F  F  F  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   71.0  72.0  73.0  71.0  76.0  77.0  80.0  75.0  N  N  N  N  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  18.0  12.0   4.0  15.0   0.0  11.0  28.0  30.0 VU  U  N  U  N  U VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.9%        2.3%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        4.6%       19.0%       11.8%
 30kt / 24h        2.4%        8.2%        5.3%
 35kt / 24h        1.8%        8.2%        5.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.3%        8.2%        4.2%
 45kt / 36h        7.3%       22.7%       15.0%
 55kt / 36h        3.8%        7.8%        5.8%
 55kt / 48h       14.7%       12.6%       13.6%
 70kt / 48h        7.2%        6.3%        6.8%
 65kt / 72h        4.7%        3.1%        3.9%