Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210807 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     29.30    137.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.60             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]      9.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      3.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.80             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    126.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        12.9  10.6  14.0  12.8  18.1  28.2  31.6  38.8  F  F  F  F  F  N  U  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   17.0  17.0   7.0  25.0  23.0  15.0  20.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        114.6 110.1 101.5 103.6 105.7  81.0  82.7  68.6  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    47.0  30.0  35.0  15.0 -10.0  59.0   9.0   0.0  N  N  N  U  U  N  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   72.0  69.0  69.0  67.0  65.0  66.0  65.0  65.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   9.0  -4.0   4.0  11.0  22.0  53.0  48.0  95.0  U  F  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        3.9%        5.2%        4.6%
 25kt / 24h        5.8%       18.6%       12.2%
 30kt / 24h        4.8%       10.4%        7.6%
 35kt / 24h        3.9%       10.4%        7.2%
 40kt / 24h        1.0%       10.4%        5.7%
 45kt / 36h        7.6%       18.2%       12.9%
 55kt / 36h        5.1%        6.7%        5.9%
 55kt / 48h        4.0%        3.5%        3.7%
 70kt / 48h        3.0%        1.8%        2.4%
 65kt / 72h        0.1%        0.6%        0.3%