Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210807 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     31.90    139.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.40             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     15.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      6.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.40             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        14.8  15.3  13.8  18.0  21.7  30.2  39.6  46.7  F  F  F  F  N  N  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   32.0  16.0  10.0  28.0  14.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        112.9 119.6 119.6 110.7  78.0  70.8  66.7  49.7  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    40.0  46.0  38.0  17.0  31.0 -12.0   7.0  -4.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  68.0  67.0  66.0  69.0  70.0  67.0  70.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -3.0  -4.0  -4.0   6.0   7.0  20.0  37.0  49.0  N  F  F  N  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 25kt / 24h        1.0%        7.7%        4.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.5%        2.9%        1.7%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        2.9%        1.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        2.9%        1.5%
 45kt / 36h        0.5%        4.4%        2.4%
 55kt / 36h        0.3%        1.2%        0.8%
 55kt / 48h        0.8%        0.8%        0.8%
 70kt / 48h        0.8%        0.6%        0.7%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%