Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210807 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     33.20    139.50
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     3.00             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     41.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     24.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.30             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    118.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        17.9  17.1  21.4  26.8  32.4  32.2  28.4  34.5  F  F  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   36.0  49.0  51.0   8.0  13.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  N  N  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]        103.6 107.9 107.9  89.8  77.7  64.4  55.5  59.2  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  U
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -19.0  -7.0 -27.0  -6.0  19.0 -48.0 -25.0 -43.0  U  U VU  U  U VU VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  73.0  74.0  77.0  78.0  77.0  80.0  76.0  F  N  N  F  F  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   4.0  15.0  14.0  29.0  22.0  36.0  54.0 101.0  N  U  U VU VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        6.9%        6.9%        6.9%
 25kt / 24h        6.2%       16.0%       11.1%
 30kt / 24h        4.5%        6.8%        5.7%
 35kt / 24h        4.4%        6.8%        5.6%
 40kt / 24h        0.8%        6.4%        3.6%
 45kt / 36h        1.3%       10.4%        5.8%
 55kt / 36h        1.3%        3.8%        2.6%
 55kt / 48h        0.3%        0.3%        0.3%
 70kt / 48h        0.3%        0.7%        0.5%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%