Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210808 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     37.00    145.10
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     30.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      5.70             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    123.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  37.7  39.7  42.3  42.2  35.9  36.6  45.9  N  U  U VU VU  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         65.0  62.2  68.0  56.7  36.8  40.7  38.7  22.7  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    27.0   3.0 -23.0  -4.0   0.0   9.0  40.0  19.0  U  U VU  U  U  U  N  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   74.0  76.0  75.0  73.0  68.0  68.0  62.0  56.0  N  F  F  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   7.0   8.0   0.0   0.0  19.0  34.0  45.0  89.0  N  U  N  N VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.4%        0.3%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons