Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP142021 210809 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     38.20    150.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    45.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    45.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    -5.00             U
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     37.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     20.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.90             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    150.00             U


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        38.9  37.8  40.3  37.7  34.4  33.4  37.1  44.3  U  U  U  U  U  U  U VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         70.0  67.2  45.7  49.8  56.7  47.7  34.2  24.0  U  U  U  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]   -26.0  -5.0   0.0 -25.0 -44.0  -7.0 -20.0 -31.0 VU  U  U VU VU  U VU VU
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   75.0  77.0  72.0  72.0  71.0  65.0  64.0  54.0  F  F  N  N  N  N  N  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -2.0  10.0  13.0 -10.0  29.0  90.0 106.0  80.0  N  U  U  F VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons