Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152021 210805 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     34.50    148.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    40.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    40.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     0.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]    11.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     20.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     13.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      3.60             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    122.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        19.1  23.7  29.5  28.0  32.6  34.6  29.8  37.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   12.0  14.0  21.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         94.8  93.0  89.4  82.7  57.0  44.1  51.7  28.4  N  N  N  N  U  U  U VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    13.0  33.0  16.0  23.0  22.0  22.0  30.0  43.0  U  N  U  U  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  70.0  72.0  77.0  80.0  78.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]  -9.0 -12.0 -13.0 -21.0 -15.0  16.0   2.0 -91.0  F  F VF VF VF  U  N VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.1%        0.5%        0.3%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        1.0%        0.5%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.3%        0.1%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.1%        0.9%        0.5%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons