Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152021 210806 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     35.40    149.90
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    50.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    50.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     5.80             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     33.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      7.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    119.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.2  28.8  27.5  28.1  39.7  35.9  28.6  32.2  N  N  N  N  U  U  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]    5.0  22.0  16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         83.0  77.7  77.7  60.8  43.8  48.2  31.6  16.2  N  N  N  U  U  U VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    33.0  16.0  24.0  13.0  31.0  35.0  43.0  93.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   69.0  69.0  73.0  72.0  74.0  79.0  79.0  77.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -13.0 -18.0  -9.0   9.0  30.0  11.0 -20.0-121.0 VF VF  F  U VU  U VF VF


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.1%        1.2%        1.6%
 25kt / 24h        0.6%        1.9%        1.3%
 30kt / 24h        0.3%        0.6%        0.4%
 35kt / 24h        0.3%        0.5%        0.4%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.4%        0.2%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        1.1%        0.7%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.3%        0.2%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons