Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152021 210806 06UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.20    151.30
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    15.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     17.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      5.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    114.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        31.8  29.4  31.1  35.5  35.3  34.9  45.4  77.0  U  N  U  U  U  U VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   10.0  15.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.7  69.3  57.2  37.7  29.1  30.9   9.6  -7.1  U  U  U  U VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    29.0 -11.0  20.0  17.0  51.0  61.0  36.0  47.0  N  U  U  U  N  N  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   66.0  67.0  66.0  67.0  72.0  73.0  68.0  60.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -28.0 -24.0 -39.0 -41.0  -3.0  58.0 104.0  93.0 VF VF VF VF  N VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        4.6%        1.0%        2.8%
 25kt / 24h        0.3%        0.8%        0.6%
 30kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.2%
 35kt / 24h        0.1%        0.2%        0.1%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.1%
 45kt / 36h        0.2%        0.5%        0.3%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons