Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP152021 210806 12UTC
 Storm Located at           :     36.90    153.20
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    55.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    55.00             N
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     12.00            VU
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]      2.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.10             F
 TC SIZE          [%]    111.00             N


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        25.9  29.0  34.4  32.8  34.6  40.9  80.7  97.2  N  N  U  U  U VU VU VU
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   16.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0   0.0  U  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Potential [kt]         72.7  55.8  36.7  33.7  33.7  11.2  -6.4 -11.5  U  U  U VU VU VU VU VU
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    -8.0   0.0  11.0   3.0  33.0  15.0  58.0 101.0  U  U  U  U  N  U  N  F
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   67.0  67.0  66.0  68.0  72.0  70.0  65.0  63.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s] -10.0 -15.0  -2.0   9.0  55.0 149.0 128.0  58.0  F VF  N  U VU VU VU VU


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        0.6%        0.3%        0.5%
 25kt / 24h        0.0%        0.2%        0.1%
 30kt / 24h        0.0%        0.1%        0.0%
 35kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 40kt / 24h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 45kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 36h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 55kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 70kt / 48h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
 65kt / 72h        0.0%        0.0%        0.0%
Decapatation Guidance NOT VALID
Thermodyanmic Conditions Unfavorable for Intense Typhoons