Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210810 18UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.30    178.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]    10.00             F
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     50.00             N
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     34.00             N
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      8.00             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     81.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        16.7  16.3  11.7  11.1  19.1  27.1  30.5  30.8  F  F  F  F  N  N  N  U
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   75.0  79.0  81.0  84.0  87.0  89.0  94.0  94.0  N  N  N  N  N  F  F  F
 Potential [kt]        134.3 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    42.0  13.0  -7.0 -16.0  -4.0  -5.0 -18.0   3.0  N  U  U  U  U  U  U  U
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   57.0  53.0  50.0  51.0  51.0  47.0  50.0  54.0  U  U  U  U  U VU  U  U
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0   0.0   1.0   0.0   0.0  -1.0  -2.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  N  N


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        5.3%        9.4%        7.4%
 25kt / 24h       28.3%       57.0%       42.6%
 30kt / 24h       17.0%       35.4%       26.2%
 35kt / 24h        7.3%       35.4%       21.4%
 40kt / 24h        6.8%       34.9%       20.9%
 45kt / 36h       25.7%       70.6%       48.2%
 55kt / 36h       22.4%       54.0%       38.2%
 55kt / 48h       38.6%       24.7%       31.6%
 70kt / 48h       24.7%       42.3%       33.5%
 65kt / 72h       55.3%       50.3%       52.8%