Rapid Intensification Guidance

 WP162021 210811 00UTC
 Storm Located at           :     12.50    177.00
 Guidance run with Vmax [kt]:    30.


 Initial Conditions: 
 Predictor                Value    Favorable(F)/Unfavorable(U) 
 INTENSITY (VMAX) [kt]    30.00             F
 12-H DELTA VMAX  [kt]     5.00             N
 CORE SIZE        [km]     2.20             F
 CONVECTION <-50C [%]     35.00             U
 CONVECTION <-60C [%]     18.00             U
 IR CORE SYMMETRY [K]      6.50             F
 TC SIZE          [%]     78.00             F


 Forecast Conditions:
 Predictor              Value                                         Favorable(F)/Unfavor(U) 
                           6    12    18    24    36    48    60    72  6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72
 Wind Shear [kt]        18.4  17.5  11.5  10.1  14.0  25.6  25.6  29.0  F  F  F  F  F  N  N  N
 Ocean Heat [kJ/cm^2]   60.0  49.0  45.0  50.0  60.0  28.0  21.0  43.0  N  N  N  N  N  U  U  N
 Potential [kt]        135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0 135.0  F  F  F  F  F  F  F  F
 200mb Divg [10^6/s]    22.0  20.0  -6.0 -20.0   9.0  15.0  39.0  51.0  U  U  U VU  U  U  N  N
 Humidity 700-500 hPa   61.0  61.0  61.0  59.0  60.0  59.0  61.0  61.0  N  N  N  U  N  U  N  N
 T Advectio [10^6 K/s]   1.0   0.0  -1.0  -1.0   1.0   0.0  -4.0 -10.0  N  N  N  N  N  N  F  F


    Probabilities[%] of Rapid intensification
 Thresholds   LDA-Method  LRE-Method  CONSENSUS
 20kt / 12h        2.0%        5.0%        3.5%
 25kt / 24h       11.9%       37.5%       24.7%
 30kt / 24h        7.1%       19.2%       13.1%
 35kt / 24h        2.5%       19.2%       10.8%
 40kt / 24h        2.4%       19.2%       10.8%
 45kt / 36h       14.4%       53.4%       33.9%
 55kt / 36h       11.7%       32.4%       22.0%
 55kt / 48h       22.0%       29.2%       25.6%
 70kt / 48h       13.6%       23.6%       18.6%
 65kt / 72h       21.0%       31.5%       26.3%